The price of a nut draw
Four callers, a nut flush draw, and it is still a fold. Here is why.
You hold the nut flush draw on one board and nothing on the other. Someone bets the pot and three players call. It looks like five to one. It is not.
When you hit, you win half the pot, and the half you win is made of what was already there plus the losers' calls, divided by the number of people who share your board. The other half goes to someone else whatever you do. Work it through with a pot of thirty and four calls of thirty: you put in thirty to win, at best, about sixty. That is two to one, and a nine-out draw with one card to come is not two to one. Fold.
The same arithmetic makes a nut draw heads up with a locked second board a monster, because then you cannot lose the other half. The draw did not change; the other board did.
Today's drill is arithmetic: ten questions on what a call or a bet is really worth across two boards.
Notice the moment you are tempted to call with two pair or a flush without the ace.
Today's hand on the table
A deal that shows what today is about, with the method at your seat. Step through it, or let it run. Deal again for another.
Day 15 · All thirty days · Day 17
THE 30-DAY COURSE
A plan for your next game.
One lesson. One drill set. A little more clarity at the table.