The table behind the colours

The colours are shorthand for a number: how often a hand of that kind wins its board by the river against a full table. The nuts on the flop is about fifty-five. A thirteen-out wrap about fifty. Second nuts about forty. A nut draw with eight or nine outs about thirty-five. A non-nut flush thirty. A hand only two or three hands beat about twenty-five. A non-nut straight twenty. Trips fifteen. Two pair five. A pair or nothing, zero.

The number moves with the number of opponents. Heads up, everything is worth more; against five or more, less. The trainer uses the live count. You do not have to memorise the table, but you have to believe it, especially the bottom rows: two pair is five, not forty.

Your number for the hand is the average of the two boards. Compare it with the price: a pot-sized bet needs thirty-three, two thirds needs thirty, half needs twenty-five. That comparison is the whole of step three, which you meet next week. Today, more first-bet spots.